After the big thrills and upsets at the recent Noche UFC event, there is more top MMA action to come from Las Vegas. Hosted at the UFC Apex, the headline of the October 19th UFC Fight Night is Michel Pereira vs Anthony Hernandez in the middleweight division.
Is Michel Pereira vs Anthony Hernandez A Title Fight?
No. While it is the main event for the UFC Fight Night, Pereira vs Hernandez is not a title fight and instead is a ladder fight, giving one of them the chance to climb up the rankings in the division. Hernandez and Pereira are currently ranked 13th and 14th in the middleweight division.
The fight will be over five rounds at the 185-pound weight limit, and the winner of the bout isn’t likely to line up a title shot immediately afterwards. The likes of the current reigning UFC middleweight champion, South Africa’s Dricus Du Plessis, along with other division stars like Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker will probably remain out of reach for a while.
What The Odds Say
GambleOntario.ca – a trusted comparison site for sports betting sites and online casinos with a transparency-first ethos – is a great starting point when searching for sportsbooks offering the most competitive odds, especially for UFC events. While the odds for the Pereira v Hernandez fight are not listed yet, in the week preceding the UFC Fight Night, the market will start to take shape. There is not expected to be a huge favorite for the bout between the two evenly-matched fighters.
Who Else Fighting?
Here is the full card for the UFC Fight Night on October 19th in Las Vegas.
Anthony Hernandez vs Michel Pereira
Darren Elkins vs Daniel Pineda
Brady Hiestand vs Jake Hadley
Matheus Nicolau vs Asu Almabayev
Joselyne Edwards vs Tamires Vidal
Rayanne Dos Santos vs Alice Ardelean
Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto
Rob Font vs Kyerl Phillips
Austen Lane vs Robelis Depsaigne
Jessica Penne vs Elise Reed
Charles Johnson vs Sumudaerji
Michel Pereira Stats
Brazil’s Pereira is currently on a great streak. After back-to-back losses in his early UFC career against Tristan Connelly and Diego Sanchez in 2019 and 2020, Pereira has been on a tear. He has won his last eight fights on the bounce, a hugely impressive run of form.
Michel Pereira, who has a background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, last fought in May this year at UFC 301 when he defeated Ihor Potieria by a first-round submission and was awarded the Performance of the Night. That was the fifth UFC Performance of the Night by the Brazilian within the organization.
The victory over Potieria left Pereira’s career MMA record at 31-11-0 and in the UFC he moved up to a 9-2 record. The 30-year-old is a seasoned pro, having made his fight debut back in 2011.
Of his 9 UFC wins, only 22% of them have been by a knockout, so there is a decent chance that his fight against Hernandez will go the distance. Four of his last seven bouts have gone to the judges, so there is a clear trend running in his results.
Anthony Hernandez Stats
The USA’s Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez is on a five-fight winning streak. He was most recently in action against Roman Kopylov at UFC 298 in February this year, a bout that he won by submission. He is not as experienced in the octagon as his opponent Michel Pereira, despite being the same age.
Hernandez has a 12-2-0 MMA career record and in the UFC he is up to 6-2-0 after his latest victory. He made his UFC debut in 2019, which ended in a defeat, and he started from a wrestling background before shifting into mixed martial arts.
Much like his upcoming opponent, Hernandez doesn’t carry a huge knockout threat, with only two of his career victories coming by a stoppage, the other eight by submission. Just one of those knockouts was in the UFC, and it happened against Edmen Shahbazyan in Hernandez’s penultimate fight.
On average, Hernandez’s fight time is 7:48, which is a good two minutes less than Pereira’s.
Pereira vs Hernandez Tale Of Tape
Michel Pereira is 6' 1" (186cm) and has a reach of 72.8 inches (185cm). The Brazilian is 30 years old but will have celebrated his 31st birthday before the bout. Across his last five bouts, Pereira has been fighting an average of once every six months and has featured in nine rounds during those appearances.
Anthony Hernandez stands at 6 '0 (183cm) and will celebrate his 31st birthday the day before this fight. The American has a reach of 75.2 inches (191) which is a significant advantage over Pereira. “Fluffy” has averaged a fight once every 7 months over his last five bouts.
Pereira vs Hernandez - Who Will Win?
The Tapology community has been leaning towards a win for Pereira in the fight, with the Brazilian fighter taking around two-thirds of predictions. But on paper, these are two very evenly-matched fighters, and expect them to spend a lot of time on the mat when they meet.
Pereira vs Hernandez is likely to be a battle for grappling supremacy because that is just the natural strength of both fighters. The key difference between the two from their latest performances is that Hernandez has been finishing the job early in his bouts, more so than Pereira.
Only one of Hernandez’s last six victories has come from the judges' decisions, as he has rattled off submission after submission. In contrast, Pereira’s last two wins have been recorded by a submission, but four of his last seven bouts have gone to the scorecard.
Where It Could Be Decided
Pereira carries a slightly better striking accuracy of 59% compared to the 54% recorded by Pereira. Hernandez is just a little more economical with his significant strikes, more controlled and patient when picking his shots than Pereira. But then in terms of all-round versatility, Pereira is more mobile, more adaptable and aggressive in getting on the front foot.
Landing a big knockout blow is not likely to be a main strategy for either fighter. Even though Hernandez has a reach advantage, it’s not something that is going to make a huge difference in this type of fight, which could be a cagey, long affair with plenty of defense on show on the night.
Pereira, in particular, has a superb defense with an incredible 94% takedown defense record, an amazing stat, especially when stacked up against the 63% takedown defense posted by Hernandez. He’ll need it because Hernandez averages around 6 takedown attempts every 5 minutes, compared to just one and a half by Pereira.
The advantage should swing the way of Hernandez when they are on the mat, but Pereira is as gritty as it comes and is hard to pin down. Given that this is a five-round fight, the fighters will likely try and pace themselves a bit instead of burning out early on in a big flurry of action.
If this goes all the way to a decision by the judges, then it is likely to be very close. This is the toughest fight that either of them had for a while, and it could easily swing either way. If it’s settled early, submission will likely be the way.
