As the Ultimate Fighting Championship sets up the octagon in Singapore, one look up and down the event’s fight card and pundits will see a variety of familiar names. Most of those names are matched up against others who you may never have heard of. For oddsmakers, these means major gaps in the odds. For yours truly, that means a litany of fun bets.
UFC Fight Night 111: Holm vs. Correia will be headlined by former women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm (-650) who is a massive favorite vs. former title contender Bethe Correia (+475). While anything can happen in MMA, I’m with those who have kept the line strong for Holm.
She is the favorite for many reasons, top of which is her striking acumen. Look for her to pick apart Bethe in surgeon like fashion eventually getting the T/KO. If you agree, you will find better value in the +100 currently being offered on Holm to do so.
In the co-main event, former heavyweight champion Andre Arlovski (+200) is the underdog to Marcin Tybura (-240). Arlovski has been defeated and finished in his last four fights. Tybura has finished three of his last four opponents. MMA math is not always right but we can expect a finish in this one … and early.
It’s a heavyweight scrap, so realistically, both of these guys can win with their striking. While I’m leaning towards the +100 on Tybura via T/KO, Arlovski winning by the same manner pays +500. Dutch this and you can come out on top either way, just without as much of a profit.
Moving on to the welterweight bout between Colby Covington (-320) and veteran Dong Hyun Kim (+260). The importance of the youth factor in this bout here cannot be understated. Covington is 29 while ‘The Stun Gun’ is 35, so expect a difference in speed, explosiveness and power from the Colby.
Considering Kim has never been submitted but has been finished with strikes before, Colby via T/KO may be a good option at +585. But Kim via submission pays a whopping +1185. That’s a sweet deal if you ask me.
Then we have the opening bout on the main card, as former Strikeforce Welterweight Champion Tarec Saffiediene (+230) is set to welcome former UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos (-270) to the 170 lbs weight class.
While most of the analysis in this bout here centers around RDA finishing Tarec with strikes, I can partially buy that argument. But something tells me neither guy will finish the other and this one could go the distance, with Dos Anjos emerging victorious. If you agree, then there is some value in the -110 on Dos Anjos via decision.
As for the rest of the card, here are a few fun bets you may also want to consider:
Jon Tuck via T/KO (+195) over Takanori Gomi
Justin Scoggins via T/KO (+165) over Ulka Sasaki
Don’t forget that this event starts bright and early Saturday morning with Fightful Managing Editor Sean Ross Sapp and I hosting a post-event recap podcast later in the day. Stay tuned to all of our social media for the start time.
Enjoy the event, and here’s hoping you can put some extra coin in your bank accounts.
