The UFC’s return to Germany has a variety of bouts that have the bookmakers providing some solid value and what yours truly deems as some fun bets. And look no further than the heavyweight main event between former UFC champs Andre Arlovski and Josh Barnett.
With all heavyweight bouts, the (T)KO is always an option for anyone looking to put a few bucks down. In Arlovski, we have a fighter who has 17 (T)KO’s on his resume … nearly 70% of his victories. Pick him to win with his fists and you’ll get 2.5 times your wager. But remember, one thing: 75% of his losses have come by way of (T)KO. And if you want a fun bet, you’ve got Barnett winning by (T)KO at +300.
And for you fans looking for a vintage catch-wrestling performance by Josh Barnett, a submission victory by the big man is paying around +220. It’s not doing much for me at that price but as always, you just never know. He’s an exceptional grappler and does have the edge over Arlovski in the submission realm.
Saturday’s co-main event sees the return of light-heavyweight contender Alexander Gustaffson, who will take on Poland’s Jan Blanchowicz, a winner of seven of his past nine bouts.
“The Mauler” is the number four man at 205 lbs in the world … and that’s a big #4, where there are many who believe there is a significant drop between him, and everyone else below him in the division (with all due respect to Glover Teixeira). Picking him to win at -650 is too dangerous for me. We have to figure he’s going to win, but by how?
The men that Gustaffson has lost to are current champ Daniel Cormier (split decision), former champ Jon Jones (a very controversial decision) and Anthony Johnson (a decisive first round finish).
One could easily make an assumption that there should be a talent gap between Gustaffson and Blanchowicz, and if you subscribe to that theory, then you can expect a finish to take place in this one. It’s not the greatest value, but at +135, it’s a way better value than -650.
During this week’s podcast on FightFul.com, host Sean Ross Sapp wondered out loud about what we could expect between Ryan Bader and Ilir Latifi. Would it be a quick one, or would it drag on forever and be the longest 15 mins fight ever.
If Sapp is on to something, then not picking a winner and believing this will go the distance pays +135. Nothing to scream about right? But if Sean is right and this one ends quickly, we have to think it will likely not be by submission. It’s going to be with some punches and there some fun in Laitfit at +370 and value in Bader at +185. Heck, one site has it at +300. That is something I would consider for sure.
A few other bouts and props that stick out to me are Nick Hein vs. Tae Hyun Bang.
Hein is favored at -280, bookie language for he’s going to win, but my brain says how? I’m a fan of his striking acumen but since joining the UFC, he’s had four fights, all of which have gone the distance. It’s as if he doesn’t have the power to finish (but I believe he does). And at +510, fighting at home … why not?
The other bout that has me intrigued is the lightweight tilt between Rustam Khabilov and Leandro Issa. I really like Khabilov’s skill set, and can see him pulling off a (T)KO here. If he does do it, it’s a +430 payout. But it is MMA, and with Issa being a BJJ black belt, his submission game will always be a threat … and believe it or not, it pays +1375. Talk about a fun bet !!!
As always, I’d like to hear what you see as value or a fun bet(s) for this Saturday’s event. Feel free to hit me up on social media, be it Facebook, Twitter and Instagram: @ShowdownJoe.
