With the UFC set to hold it’s fourth show in the city of Vancouver, one look at the main and co-main event matchups, and we can easily pick out a variety of fun bets to consider with the bookies.
While the serious better is looking for value, the more casual wagerer sometimes likes to put down some money on props with higher odds, risking less capital and hoping for a larger return.
In the main event, we have Demian Maia (+2.00) taking on Carlos Condit (-1.80) in what many are billing as an old-school style vs. style matchup. Maia, the submission fighter taking on Condit, a man who holds 13 (T)KO’s on his resume.
The odds to win this fight favor Carlos, but the numbers say it’s likely going to be a close one, but as we know, it’s MMA. The one lesson we keep getting taught, is that anything can happen and anyone can win a fight, and do so, in a variety of ways.
We know Maia will be looking for the submission, and if he gets it, it will pay 5-1. Some may say this number should be lower, but if we factor in that Condit has submitted 15 opponents and has only been submitted 3 times (in 30 fights), you can understand why this number is where it is.
On the flip side, the bookies are showing that the money is stating there will be a better chance that Condit wins via T(KO), as that prop pays +2.55, but an even better chance that this one will go the distance (+2.45).
Maia averages 2.96 takedowns a fight, and when he gets them, it’s usually a long round for his opponent. Carlos’ takedown defense is at 40%, so there’s a good chance Maia can take him down to the mat. This makes that +5.00 on Maia securing a submission a definite fun bet.
In the co-main event, one could make the same argument that is can also be considered an old-school, style vs. style match-up, as former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (-1.50) will make his featherweight debut vs. Charles Oliveira (+2.80).
Despite Pettis having a solid submission game, he is still thought of as more of a striker, with the books paying (+2.80) if “Showtime wins via (T)KO, and a whopping +6.00 if he can score the tap out.
Oliveira has submitted thirteen opponents, which makes up 61.9% of his victories. If he wins via tap out, it pays +5.20. Interestingly enough, it’s very close to Maia’s number vs. Condit, but strange when you consider Demian is considered arguably the best jiu-jitsu fighter in MMA.
Oliveira has hit 35% of his takedown attempts while Pettis’s takedown defence is at 61%. Perhaps the numbers are telling us that this fight will likely not be hitting the ground and that it will be a stand-up affair. If you like that math, that +2.80 on Pettis winning via (T)KO becomes appealing.
No matter which angle you take, MMA is simply too unpredictable to forecast. To pick who can defeat who, if that victory will take place within the distance, and if so, in what manner will it end is simply a fun exercise to partake in. You can examine the number, add them up in your own way or disregard the numbers completely. However way you determine which wager to make, it’s always nice when you can find that fun bet which pays a handsome return.
As always, never wager more than you can afford and best of luck in finding that solid payout
