There’s a fight night coming up on February 5, which means there are also some interesting bouts to bet on. The main event is Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivak, which is a rescheduled fight from November after a medical issue caused Lewis to bow out at the last minute. Now apparently he’s healthy and ready to go.
Lewis is a veteran at 37, and he is the all-time leader in knockouts in UFC history. However, while that sounds impressive, and it is, it’s about all he can do. He has no ground game and very little defensive ability. What he does have are powerful strikes that can end a fight out of nowhere.
At 26-10, he has a respectable record, but his best days are probably behind him. He’s lost 3 of his last 4, and medical issue with the last fight notwithstanding, he’s had knee and back ailments that have hampered his efforts. He’s a massive man, weighing in at 290 lbs, and he’s moved well, but he’s starting to show his age. Lewis has been vocal that he’s no longer in the game for the glory, he’s in it for the paycheque. His conditioning isn’t great, but he does have the power and the strength to change a fight in a hurry. Because of this, he’s one of the most exciting heavyweights in the division.
Serghei Spivak is a large man as well, coming in around 260, however he carries it differently than Lewis. He does not rely on his strikes to find success. He excels on the ground, and can inflict heavy damage. He has good conditioning, and he’s shown improved striking in the last few fights. However, he won’t want to go toe to toe with Lewis.
Prediction
Currently, Lewis is ranked 7th in the heavyweight division, and Spivak is ranked 12th. However, they are two fighters going in opposite directions. Will this bout affect either one’s championship aspirations? Lewis is doubtful to get another shot with a win, and will fall further with a loss. Spivak is 10 years younger, and has won 5 of his last 6. He needs the win to hopefully get into the top 10 and start working towards the championship.
We know Lewis will do what he always does: sit back and wait until he can get a knockout strike in. He almost never takes down his opponent, and if the fight goes longer than 1 or 2 rounds, he’ll tire. He’s been exposed in the last few fights as not having much of a will. Once he starts getting hit, he’s likely to fold quickly. The key for him will be to keep his distance, and hope he gets a haymaker in.
Spivak will do the opposite. The last thing he wants to do is go toe-to-toe, as that would be disastrous. He’ll work to get in close and take Lewis to the mat. From there he will use his shoot fighting skills to inflict damage. He is a superior fighter, but like most of Lewis’s fights there is always the chance of a knockout. Lewis has been known to bench press his opponent off of him when going to the ground, but Spivak should be able to take him down multiple times. This will tire Lewis out, letting Spivak have his way with him.
On paper, despite his punching power, this looks like a bad matchup for Lewis. Spivak should have no trouble getting inside and taking Lewis to the mat. His groundwork will do the rest. At Opening at -172, Spivak is a strong favorite to Lewis at +130. Expect that line to move even farther as we get closer to fight night. If you think Lewis will get that knockout punch, then he’s your pick. However, we’re going with Spivak and his shoot fighting skills in this one. Spivak at -172.
Betting On UFC
This fight takes place in Las Vegas but you don’t have to be there to bet on it. There are now many legal sports betting states along with Nevada, so you can bet safely and legally. Along with the moneyline, there are other intriguing betting opportunities with this fight. For instance, you can take a flyer and pick a KO in the first round on the off chance that Lewis can pull it off. If you want to play it safe, you can choose the over of 3.5 rounds as Spivak demonstrates his patience. Whatever you choose, placing a bet always makes even the most boring fight more exciting.
